I split my time between the East Coast and West Coast. Last month, I guess the rain in the northeast was getting to me.  Seemed like between the August rain and all the bad economic news in the media, it was hard to find a lot to smile about.  But I did manage to find something, and it had to do with the fact that commercial scores were actually starting to tick higher. 

Well, it’s a new month, new quarter, and while the weather in the Northeast may not be any better, I am back in lovely North San Diego County, and the weather couldn’t be any better.  PLUS, it looks like the hammerlock the “gloomy Gus’s” had on the media is lessening as well.  So, while the news isn’t necessarily great, it isn’t awful either.  The National Federation of Independent Business just released their latest survey, and small business optimism actually ticked up ever so slightly in September.  But, the key thing is, that for the first time in 6 months, it didn’t decline.  What was also interesting was that “credit problems” were the number one issue for only 4% of the respondents.

We can couple that with Experian’s latest benchmark report, which shows that average commercial risk scores held firm for the third quarter.  And bankruptcy filings have also leveled off, at least through mid-year which is the latest data I’ve seen.

We are not out of the woods yet, and far be it from me to make any kind of prediction.  Maybe it’s because the sun is shining here, but I’m thinking things might be on the cusp of getting better…again.  I will be interested to see what the economic world looks like one year from today.  It seems like the sun may be shining a little brighter by then too.

Ok, that is a loaded question. We can take a look at many things, and say, “yea, with all the bad news coming out, of course small business owners are losing confidence”.  The NFIB confirms that with their latest report. Reasons cited?  What else….inflation fears brought on by higher gas prices, and high unemployment. 

But wait … aren’t gas prices going down?  Oh, that’s right.  They may be going down, but they are still up substantially from even six months ago.  I recently heard Warren Buffett suggest that when construction activity turns positive, then the economy will get going.  Well, not exactly what he said, but since we have made the connection between employment uncertainty and an improving economy, I guess I made the assumption that one follows the other.

Ok, I am not in a position to disagree with Mr. Buffett.  But really?  It seems to me or in my humble opinion (IMHO…learned this one from my kids) that the issue is bigger than that.  Again, IMHO, that would say that the majority of those unemployed are tied to the construction industry somehow…but what about workers let go from financial services firms or those whose manufacturing jobs were offshored?  I am not seeing how improvements in the housing picture get them back to work.  Or the small business guy who can no longer compete with the big box retailer?

Anyway, far be it from me to disagree with Mr. Buffett, but I guess I’d like to ask him for a little clarification.