In the movie “Casablanca”, the French police chief has a famous line, “round up the usual suspects”.  The Financial Stability Risk Score, or FSR, predicts bankruptcy or severe payment default and the factors used by the scoring model are familiar ones. Among the warning signals used:  61+ and 91+ delinquency trades and derogatories such as [...]

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You do not have to be the owner of Greek Treasury bonds to be concerned about the risk of a major account going bankrupt or defaulting. Slow pay is one thing, but no pay is unacceptable. To help reduce the risk of no-pay accounts, we’ve developed a new product – the the Financial Stability Risk [...]

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A credit score is looking to the future . Sometimes I will receive a question about a score, because on the surface the company looks good, but its credit score is in the high risk range. Often the confusion is caused by current data looking decent, such as having a high percentage of existing trade [...]

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One of the challenges in developing credit scores for more than 25 million businesses in the U.S. is accounting for the differences. After all, statistical scoring started in order to avoid making time consuming decisions on each new account application. On the other hand, having one scoring model would lump every company together in one [...]

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In the holiday favorite, “A Christmas Story,” Ralphie drinks an ocean of Ovaltine in order to receive a Little Orphan Annie decoding ring. He uses this to finally decode the cryptic messages he tracked from the end of each episode of his favorite radio show. It turns out that all his hard work was to [...]

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You may be familiar with your personal credit score, but do you know what factors drive a business credit score? The top three are trade, trade, and more trade information. You see, the number and percentage of trade credit lines that are considered delinquent or severely delinquent can have a major impact on your business’ [...]

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How do you use scores in setting a credit or risk policy? The answer actually varies widely, but there are some general rules. What is your companies risk tolerance? If margins are high, approvals are usually high also. In this situation, only the highest risk and lowest scored accounts should be rejected or reviewed. For [...]

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For most people, a credit score on a business—the Experian Intelliscore—is a bit of a mystery. In reality, the score can be thought of as solid credit analysis driven by a statistically disciplined process. For example, most people would agree that a tax lien would be a serious issue for a small business, but not [...]

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In my last post we discussed how the best predictive performance comes from using the consumer data on the business owner and blending it with the commercial data on the business.  But how does the scoring model work using both sets of data?  Unfortunately it is not as simple as half of the score is [...]

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Fast, accurate, and efficient is the way most people want decisions in today’s hyper-competitive world.  You can also add: ‘customized to my company’s specific risk policies’ and ‘flexible to change as circumstances change’—naturally, wanting this right away, no waiting.  Does this sound like the type of decision system you would love to have?  Not surprisingly, [...]

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